{
 "basis": "Build-now vs run-to-failure, SHARED futures. Incremental NPV = -capex + PV(build cash - run-to-failure cash). Same ARPU on both paths (rate lever excluded). NCI is common-mode: the same t0 exit + radio saving hits BOTH paths, so E's capex matches Ledger A and NCI genuinely cancels. Build path charges a pro-rated G1->G2 refresh at drawn wear-out (life-fraction inside the 15-yr window), mirroring Ledger A. Decline RATE and remaining LIFE are bracketed scenarios, not a known hazard curve; seasonal recovery-decay is a labeled inferred parameter, not documented. NEVER summed with the standalone cost-recovery payback (Ledger A).",
 "cases": {
  "status_quo_favorable": {
   "case": "status_quo_favorable",
   "params": {
    "decline0": 0.05,
    "recov_decay": 0.08,
    "life_mode": 8,
    "life_hi": 12,
    "rtf_opex_ramp": 0.015
   },
   "p_build_beats_rtf": 13.4,
   "incremental_NPV_P10": -915753,
   "incremental_NPV_P50": -458295,
   "incremental_NPV_P90": 75309,
   "protected_cash_PV_P50": 887401,
   "protected_cash_PV_P10": 442965,
   "rtf_PV_P50": 672632,
   "rtf_median_fail_year": 8,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr10": 93.7,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr15": 100.0,
   "capex_P80": 1383674
  },
  "central": {
   "case": "central",
   "params": {
    "decline0": 0.1,
    "recov_decay": 0.12,
    "life_mode": 5,
    "life_hi": 9,
    "rtf_opex_ramp": 0.03
   },
   "p_build_beats_rtf": 34.6,
   "incremental_NPV_P10": -683260,
   "incremental_NPV_P50": -167447,
   "incremental_NPV_P90": 392738,
   "protected_cash_PV_P50": 1179708,
   "protected_cash_PV_P10": 675868,
   "rtf_PV_P50": 396171,
   "rtf_median_fail_year": 5,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr10": 100.0,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr15": 100.0,
   "capex_P80": 1383674
  },
  "status_quo_grim": {
   "case": "status_quo_grim",
   "params": {
    "decline0": 0.15,
    "recov_decay": 0.18,
    "life_mode": 3,
    "life_hi": 6,
    "rtf_opex_ramp": 0.05
   },
   "p_build_beats_rtf": 50.9,
   "incremental_NPV_P10": -539936,
   "incremental_NPV_P50": 10163,
   "incremental_NPV_P90": 590511,
   "protected_cash_PV_P50": 1357327,
   "protected_cash_PV_P10": 818041,
   "rtf_PV_P50": 227463,
   "rtf_median_fail_year": 3,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr10": 100.0,
   "p_rtf_shutdown_by_yr15": 100.0,
   "capex_P80": 1383674
  }
 },
 "_model_version": "v2.2-2026-07-10",
 "_env": {
  "python": "3.12.10",
  "numpy": "2.4.6"
 },
 "_sha256_model": "2d70d4495d0ac3300ade5a8b91419679f1b6abbf5dfa08da5b54a89b9da0a3a8"
}